If Germany were Ukraine
Germany with the same share of its territory occupied as Ukraine, including Crimea, starting in the former East
At the end of 2025 Russia held 19.25% of Ukraine. Take the same share of Germany from the former GDR, starting in the east, and the line runs at 12.07° E. Berlin, Leipzig and Dresden lie behind it, along with 11.9 million people, 14.2% of the population. The old West is untouched: the occupation would cover 63% of the former East before it reached the old border.
Thought experiment · A scaled comparison to make the size of the occupation tangible, not a forecast. How we drew it
Area behind the line
68,838 km²
19.25% of Germany's 357,599 km²
People behind the line
11.9 million
14.2% of the population
Crimea-equivalent
15,967 km²
1.6 million people, east of 13.88° E
Line of control
12.07° E
States affected: Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia
Cities entirely behind the line
Berlin · Brandenburg an der Havel · Chemnitz · Cottbus · Dessau-Roßlau · Dresden · Frankfurt (Oder) · Leipzig · Potsdam
Split by the line: Rostock (90% behind it), Gera (63% behind it), Halle (Saale) (2% behind it).
For comparison
Ukraine's occupied territory, 116,165 km², is larger than the five eastern German states and Berlin put together (about 108,950 km²). Scaled to Germany, which is three-fifths the size of Ukraine, it becomes 68,838 km².
How we drew it
Share occupied: DeepState's assessment at the end of 2025, 116,165 km² or 19.25% of Ukraine's territory, including all of Crimea (Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, 26,945 km², 4.47% of Ukraine). Net changes reported for 2026 amount to a few hundred km², under 0.1% of Ukraine.
Line: the occupation starts in the east and is confined to the former East (the five eastern states and Berlin, 108,794 km²) until all of it is taken. Using the official federal boundary data (BKG VG2500, 1 January 2026) in an equal-area projection, we searched for the meridian east of which the former East contains exactly 19.25% of all of Germany's area (68,838 km²), and likewise for the Crimea share. Because that is less than the former East's total, the old West is not reached. This is one of many possible shapes.
People: each district's population (the basis used in the 2025 police crime statistics) multiplied by the share of its area east of the line, assuming people are spread evenly within a district.